Paris Stock Exchange: The Cavalry Arrives

But let’s start with some context. Stock markets lost ground yesterday. Investors are still torn between their natural inclination to take advantage of even lower prices than they were at the beginning of the year and the bouts of anxiety linked to geopolitics, inflation and uncertain tomorrows. The renewed tension came from the energy market, where prices rose sharply after Vladimir Putin demanded that the Russian gas bill from countries fighting the war in Ukraine be paid in rubles. A way to ease the weight of sanctions on the Russian currency, forcing the hand of Westerners. This possibility had already been mentioned in the past and echoes other measures such as the power proposed by the Kremlin pay debts in rubles instead of dollars or euros. From the start of the conflict we know that Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has been Putin’s main lever. It would be a mistake to deprive yourself of it.

The necessary European energy transition is part of a series of convulsions identified by Bank of America, which spares no effort when it comes to qualifying the period we are currently experiencing in Europe. I admit that I share many of the elements that are exposed, not because I am particularly competent but because they come from common sense. What does the US bank’s London-based team tell us? Well, we are going through one of those rare events in history that will reshape geopolitics, societies, and markets. A chance for old Europe”become independent and redefine many of its sectors and economic paradigms“It is a great opportunity, but sooner or later it will have to be paid for. Some sectors will have a hard time exploiting their costs. Low-income Europeans will probably toast.”

Bank of America identifies seven underlying trends, which will give me an opportunity to review Latin ordinal adverbs. First, defense spending will grow. You don’t have to be particularly clairvoyant to understand it. 150 to 200 billion euros per year more for the industry, according to BofA. Second, the ESG will take a more concrete form and should better integrate the “S” and the “G” with the “E”. Third and fourth (I mix them up because they are intimately linked), the priority will go to energy independence and it will take longer than is generally thought, while the energy transition will be accelerated out of necessity. Fifth, Europe will invest heavily in relocating and securing its supply. Sixth, the large energy-intensive industry is likely to have to move abroad, while local energy-intensive industries, such as cement, will have to learn to live on lower margins. And seventh (OK, I fooled Septimo, I went looking on the web because I didn’t remember), inflation and rates will be higher for a while, which will be positive for banks but not for real estate, the poorest Europeans and retail.

I take this opportunity to slip you the list of values ​​that the BofA likes to bet on these issues: Such, Saab, rheinmetall, hensoldt, shell, equinor, vestas, siemens energy, RWE, triplet, Saint Gobain, wingspan, Sika, To mean, In this, Aker Carbon Capture, liquid air, sheath point, vitesque, Mercedes, DSV, Maersk, Siemens, Hexagon, Dassault Systems, DYED, Automatic storage, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, ASML, international ASM, be semiconductor, NatWest, DNB.

The week ends with Joe Biden’s trip to Europe. First in Brussels, then in Poland on Friday. The US president probably hadn’t planned on donning the guise of a warlord, as the press reported this morning, but he really had no choice. Uncle Sam to the rescue is deja vu. Isn’t Michel Sardou? ? (although Renaud’s version is much funnier). Energy prices are likely to be very volatile today as Joe Biden is rumored to bring new sanctions against Russia as well as a draft plan to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.

This March 24 also coincides with the reopening of the Moscow Stock Exchange, where shares have not been listed since February 25. A partial and supervised reopening, which will affect 33 companies. And again, short selling will be prohibited and only Russian residents will be able to place sell orders. Meanwhile, the Russian pullout continues for Western companies. Renault, which was still resisting international pressure, ended up giving up by closing its local subsidiary Avtovaz, which is also the main Russian manufacturer, better known through some of its brands such as Lada. Moreover, every day we discover that companies that wanted to be forgotten have not yet fully decided whether to strictly comply with international sanctions or if they go further by ceasing all activity.

But back to today’s session, in a cautious mood this morning ahead of early trading, even if pre-open indicators point to a slightly bullish open. In Asia, the Nikkei closed 0.25% higher in Japan, while Chinese markets were slightly lower. The CAC40 gained 0.3% to 6600 points shortly after the first trades.

The highlights of the economic day

The Flash PMI indicators for the main world economies for the month of March will be published throughout the day. They determine the morale of those responsible for purchasing from large companies. Durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims are also scheduled in the United States (1:30pm). All the macro agenda here.

L’euro it falls back below the $1.10 mark at $1.0981. L’once d’or dates back to around 1940 USD. Oil remains firm, with a Brent of the North Sea at 121.23 USD and a US light crude WTI at $114.25. The performance of the american debt it is moderating a bit to 2.35% over 10 years, while German debt offers a coupon of 0.46% over the same duration. the bitcoin it trades around 42,900 USD.

The main changes in the recommendations.

  • aker biomarine : Nordea starts monitoring the purchase with the target of 60 NOK.
  • amundi : Citigroup lowers its target price from EUR88 to EUR80.
  • bechtle : Jefferies goes from hold to buy, targeting EUR63.
  • Befesa : Morgan Stanley starts monitoring the overweight with a target of EUR 81.
  • Beiersdorf : Jefferies remains long with a high price target of EUR109-111.
  • british american tobacco : JP Morgan moves from neutral to overweight by targeting 4,000 GBp.
  • danone : Berenberg remains short with a reduced price target of EUR54 to EUR50.
  • Dometic : Jefferies remains long with a reduced price target from SEK 123 to 120.
  • Drax : Jefferies goes from buy to hold with the target of 700 GBp.
  • At : Jefferies goes from hold to buy, targeting EUR7.
  • eQ Oyj : Inderes goes from accumulating to reducing pointing to 27 EUR.
  • freenet : Oddo BHF starts to trail neutral with a target of EUR 25.
  • rock : UBS remains short with a reduced price target of CHF 1,500 to 1,450.
  • Interroll : UBS moves from short to neutral, targeting CHF 3,300.
  • Peet’s JDE : Berenberg moves from holding to selling targeting EUR24.
  • The real : Jefferies goes from holding to underperforming by targeting EUR314.
  • Nemetschek : Baader Helvea remains to be accumulated with a target reduced from 105 to 95 EUR.
  • Orsted : Jefferies moves from underperforming to holding with the DKK 750 target.
  • right move : RBC moves from underperforming to market by targeting 630 GBp.

In France

Important (and less important) announcements

  • Engie will sell part of its stake in Gaztransport and Technigazto lower from 20 to 12%.
  • Renault yields to pressure and stops the activity of its Russian factory and studies the future of its majority stake in Avtovaz. The manufacturer has lowered its forecast for 2022.
  • Total Energies Review your production targets.
  • Carrefour placed 1,500 million euros in sustainable bonds.
  • Stellantis and lg energy will produce batteries in Canada.
  • Sanofi stop spending in Russia, excluding vaccines and “essential” medicines.
  • danone it maintains its position in Russia and continues to produce its essential goods.
  • sodexo examines “different options” regarding the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
  • CGG wins a contract in Brazil.
  • spies is responsible for the management of the technical installations of Siemens Healthineers.
  • Trigano, hexagon, aubay, visionary, Roche Bobois, NRJ Group, Reworldpublished their accounts.

In the world

Important announcements (and others)

Conferences

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