The “liver A reflex”, from the health crisis to the war in Ukraine

chart of the week

For Livret A, the year 2022 got off to a spectacular start. After a net inflow (deposits minus withdrawals) of 6,250 million euros in Januarythere are 2,940 million that he harvested in February this savings account untaxed, according to the Caisse des dépôts.

If we add the numbers of Solidarity and Sustainable Development Brochure (LDDS), a product with terms very similar to those of Livret A, net inflows in February reached 3,480 million, and those made since the beginning of the year, 10,280 million. Enough to bring the total outstanding balance of these two prospectuses to €479.9 billion: €352.5 billion for Livret A and €127.4 billion for LDDS.

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The amount collected during the first two months of 2022 is very similar to that registered during the same period of 2021 (10,960 million euros). It far exceeds the levels prior to the health crisis (7.13 billion in 2019 and then 6.08 billion in 2020).

precautionary saving

In question, according to Philippe Crevel, director of the Círculo de Ahorros, “raise the rate”but also “The health context marked by the resurgence of Covid-19” and the Ukraine crisis [qui] it has also encouraged French households to maintain a strong precautionary savings buffer”.

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In fact, the remuneration rate for these two brochures doubled on 1is February. It rose to 1% after stalling at a record low of 0.50% for two years. “The type effect usually lasts between three and four months”says Mr. Crevel.

Attention, whoever says recent rise in the rate does not say protection of the savings placed against inflation. “The Livret A is the benchmark investment in times of crisis, amplifying the rate hike this reflection. However, with inflation close to 4%, the real rate of Livret A is negative by almost 3 points. You have to go back to the early 1980s to find that gap between inflation and Livret A performance.”note M. Crevel.

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When will the next increase in Livret A and LDDS rates be seen? a priori the 1is August 2022, since the calculation, which takes into account half of the inflation of the last six months, half of the short-term interbank interest rates, is theoretically semi-annual.

However, the governor of the Banque de France is authorized on April 15 of each year to propose by mail to Bercy a revision for the 1is May, if you think “as warranted by change in inflation or money markets”, indicated the decree of January 27, 2021 regarding the interest rates of regulated savings products. asked by The worldThe Banque de France declined to comment on its intentions at this time.

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