Great Barometer: the PTB sets a record in Wallonia, the N-VA returns to the lead in Flanders

Where will the PTB rise stop? The Belgian Labor Party records its highest score in the history of our Great Barometer RTL INFO-Ipsos-Le Soir. If we were to vote again tomorrow, the anti-capitalist left party would be close to 20%.

These are the key points of our survey. You’ll find the full results by region a little further down.

  • PTB record in Wallonia

19.7% is unprecedented for Raoul Hedebouw’s party in the history of our polls. This score allows PTB to establish its third place in Wallonia, and even ogle their heads. The difference is small with the PS and the MR. It is even below the margins of error.

In Brussels, the PTB advanced and even symbolically passed ahead of the PS.

  • Bad luck for PS

Unlike the PTB, the PS registered one of its lowest scores in the history of our survey: 22.4%.

In Brussels, the Socialists are relegated to 4th place and overtaken by the PTB.

  • MR stable in Wallonia, increasing in Brussels

As for the MR, it would still attract one voter in 5 in Wallonia, as in the last elections.

In the capital, the MR achieves the most significant advance: +2.5 points.

In Wallonia, as in Brussels, Ecolo does not pay for the extension of nuclear energy: the greens remain stable in the South and even recover color in the capital.

GREAT BAROMETER: THE RESULTS

wallonia

The results by party: in parentheses the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous survey in December.

  1. PS 22.4 (2019 election: 26.1 | previous poll: 24.9)
  2. MR 20.4 (2019 election: 20.5 | previous poll: 22.3)
  3. PTB 19.7 (2019 election: 13.8 | previous poll: 18.2)
  4. Echo 15.0 (2019 election: 14.9 | previous poll: 15.5)
  5. Compromised 9.5 (2019 election: 10.7 | previous poll: 8.0)
  6. CHALLENGE 3.7 (2019 election: 4.1 | previous poll: 4.2)

Margin of error of +-3.1%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of the respondents who expressed their intention to vote for a party, i.e. 891 people out of the 1009 people surveyed in Wallonia (88%). The answers “I will not vote”, “I will vote blank” and “I really do not want to answer” represent 12% of those surveyed. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-3.3.

Brussels-Capital Region

The results by party: in parentheses the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous survey in December.

  1. Green 20.3 (2019 election: 21.6 | previous poll: 19.3)
  2. MR 19.9 (2019 election: 17.5 | previous poll: 17.4)
  3. PTB*PVDA 16.4 (2019 election: 12.3 | previous poll: 15.1)
  4. PS 15.1 (2019 election: 20.0 | previous poll: 15.1)
  5. CHALLENGE 10.8 (2019 election: 10.3 | previous poll: 11.3)
  6. Compromised 4.9 (2019 election: 5.8 | previous poll: 5.2)
  7. N-VA 3.5 (2019 election: 3.2 | previous poll: 3.3)
  8. Vlaams Belang 2.3 (2019 election: 1.5 | previous poll: 3.0)

Error margin of +-4%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of the respondents who expressed their intention to vote for a party, that is, 551 people out of the 598 people surveyed in Brussels (90%). The answers “I will not vote”, “I will vote blank” and “I really do not want to answer” represent 10% of those surveyed. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-4.2.

Flanders

In Flanders, the N-VA was the leading party in the 2019 elections: Bart De Wever’s party is once again symbolically in the lead in our Great Barometer. For two and a half years, first place was held by the Vlaams Belang, the far-right Flemish party.

The results by party: in parentheses the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous survey in December.

  1. N-VA 23.4 (2019 election: 25.5 | previous poll: 21.6)
  2. Vlaams Belang 22.2 (2019 election: 18.7 | previous poll: 24.5)
  3. Vooruit (Flemish Socialists) 14.2 (2019 election: 10.8 | previous poll: 13.9)
  4. CD&V 11.3 (2019 election: 14.2 | previous poll: 10.7)
  5. Open vld 9.8 (2019 election: 13.5 | previous poll: 10.3)
  6. PVDA (Flemish PTB) 8.9 (2019 election: 5.6 | previous poll: 8.9)
  7. Green 8.4 (2019 election: 9.8 | previous poll: 8.4)

Margin of error of +-3.1%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of respondents who expressed their intention to vote for a party, i.e. 947 people out of 1,007 people surveyed in Flanders (94%). The answers “I will not vote”, “I will vote blank” and “I really do not want to answer” represent 6% of those surveyed. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-3.2.

Alexander De Croo favorite in (almost) all regions

In terms of personalities, Alexander de Croo continues to be the favorite of the Belgians: the liberal is first in Flanders, first tied in Brussels, and second in Wallonia where he rises to Sophie Wilmès, the former prime minister.

On the Flemish side, Frank Vandenbroucke disappears from the podium in Flanders while Bart de Wever returns to the 3rd step.

On the Francophone side, Paul Magnette is still third, both in Wallonia and in Brussels.

wallonia

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

  1. Sofia Wilmes: 1 (1)
  2. Alexander DeCroo: 2 (2)
  3. Paul Magnette: 3 (3)

Brussels-Capital

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

  1. Alexander DeCroo: 1 (2)
  2. Sophie Wilmès: tied 1 (1)
  3. Paul Magnette: 3 (3)

Flanders

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

  1. Alexander DeCroo: 1 (1)
  2. Conner Rousseau (President of the Flemish Socialists): 2 (2)
  3. Bart De Wever: Draw 2 (4)

Information about conducting the survey.

The survey was carried out online from March 15 to 22, 2022 with 2,614 respondents, forming representative samples of Belgians over 18 years of age at the rate of 1,009 in Wallonia, 1,007 in Flanders and 598 in the 19 municipalities of the city of Brussels. -Capital. The maximum margin of error is +-3.1% in Wallonia and Flanders and +-4% in Brussels.

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