The United States Senate confirmed this appointment. by 53 votes in favor (47 votes against), this Thursday, April 7. A first that was received with the applause of the US parliamentary chamber, reports ABC Newswhen it was the last step to be taken before Ketanji Brown Jackson was officially appointed.
Joe Biden There he realizes one of his campaign promises, put on the table after a catastrophic start to the primaries and three failures in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. His proposal to appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court won favor with the African-American electorate by South Carolinato reverse the trend, to win the Democratic primaries and then the presidential ones.
In the end, African Americans overwhelmingly voted for him against Republican Donald Trump in November 2020, with 92% of the vote. “This community traditionally votes for the Democrats, recalls Marie-Christine Bonzom, a political scientist and former journalist in the United States. But in South Carolina, Georgia or even Michigan, their support was decisive. Biden would never have been elected without them.”
fall in the polls
Since then, the president has disappointed. According to a Yougov survey (below), the president fell from 76.2% positive views among African Americans in January 2021 to 67.9% at the end of March 2022, with a low in October 2021 of 65.9%. If we compare with the percentage of votes obtained during the presidential election, it is even a drop of 25 points, points out Marie-Christine Bonzom.
“He lost a lot of support, especially among young people under 35. This considerable drop can be explained by economic reasons: the withdrawal from Afghanistan seen as a failure and badly experienced by many African-Americans in the army, the increase in crime that directly affects them, or even Covid, a disease where mortality is 2.5 times higher. higher for them than for the rest of the population,” he explains.
Among the other reasons for discontent are the failures of the electoral reform that sought to harmonize the rules of suffrage and thus avoid the obstruction of which they are victims, as well as the bill on the police that sought to revise the rights and formation of the forces of order to avoid tragedies like those of breonna taylor Where George Floyd. Both failed to convince legislators in Congress.
Biden, a default vote
For Marie-Christine Bonzom, this drop in the polls is “not surprising”. “Even before the election, there was reluctance towards Joe Biden. He is criticized for his racism -during the campaign he said ‘You are not black if you plan to vote for Trump’-, for his friendship with elected segregationist Democrats or for his support of anti-crime policy in the 90s, that made minimal harsher sentences.”
Conclusion, “if the majority of blacks vote for the Democrats, there is no enthusiasm for Biden. He was elected because he was not Trump.” This sentiment is reflected at the level of the general population: Joe Biden does not even reach 40% of favorable opinions, below the level of his predecessor during the same period of his presidency.
Could Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination generate an outburst of support, like during the campaign promise? The question arises all the more since the midterm elections will be held in seven months and a bitter failure of the Democratic Party is already anticipated. “The nomination has been very well received, the opinions are very positive. This is an important step, the first, and in no way is it a favor, she is very qualified”, emphasizes Nicole Bacharan, co-author of The Great Days That Changed America. An opinion shared by all the experts interviewed by the Huff post.
In the Yougov survey, the announcement of the resignation of Judge Stephen Breyer and his replacement by Ketanji Brown Jackson has also allowed the curve to rise. Since then, progress has been slow but steady. Jean-Éric Branaa, a professor at the Paris-2 University, however, refuses to see a real link. “At the moment there is a rise, yes, but it must also be attributed to the Ukraine crisis and the end of the Covid-19 crisis,” he judges.
the partial examsan announced failure
What about the midterm elections? Another Morning Consult poll for Politico asked the African-American community about their willingness to vote next November. In early March, 49% said they were “extremely” or “very” excited about going to the polls, an 8-point increase since the February 25 announcement of Ketanji Brown Jackson’s name.
If Morning Consult sees a link between the two, once again, Jean-Éric Branaa doesn’t want to jump to conclusions too quickly. “This survey asks about the emotion of the moment. I don’t see any correlation there. All surveys on partial exams they are null, we don’t even know the candidates we will have to vote for”, he explains.
For Marie-Christine Bonzom too, the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson will not be decisive: “There will be a small influence, on the margins, a renewed support in the coming days but it will not last until November if the economic problems do not disappear. elaborate. Biden is in limbo for all the records.”
Nicole Bacharan shares this analysis. And she adds: “Democrats will highlight this achievement. It might motivate a small part of the African-American electorate to participate, but I doubt it will have much of an impact.” The debacle of partial exams looks tough for Joe Biden.
See also in The HuffPost: One Year After Capitol Storm, Biden Blames Trump